I always get a lot of question asking how someone becomes a trader. The truth is that there is no simple answer, it is a combination of education, ability, personality, drive & luck. I’ll quickly go over them below:  

Education

At a minimum a University Bachelor in Commerce/Economics and preferably some industry courses. All the large institutions recruit at the major Universities in September for positions beginning after graduation in June/Aug. There are usually two types of positions, Analyst & Associate. Analyst is for Undergrads and Associates for MBAs.  Read the rest of this entry »

Today the Toronto Stock Exchange Index (TSX) hit 15,000 points, its highest number ever.

Even though 15,000 is purely a nominal number, skewed heavily by a small number of companies granted heavy weightings by the indexing formula, now is as good a time as any to reflect on the past 10 years.   Read the rest of this entry »

I wish this wasn’t true. I wish there was a nicer way of saying this. Alas, there is not.

Canadian consumers are suckers, willing to buy at any price.

How else can one explain the record quarter for new auto sales during the first quarter of 2008. Sales that had their biggest increase since 1998. That’s a freaking decade, people!

Sales of new passenger cars were up 17.8%, the largest increase since 1976.  That’s more than three freaking decades!

I don’t get it.

Canadian cars are expensive. No, that’s too nice, they’re a rip-off. Auto manufacturers are scamming the Canadians and they seem more than happy to go along with it.

How else can one explain these sales numbers?

The Canadian dollar has been near or above par with the US for over a year. Yet Canadian car prices are still more than 10, 20, even 30 percent more expensive than identical models south of the border. The only leverage Canadian consumers have to reduce this discrepancy is to buy used cars, or simply not buy at all.

However, going out like lemmings and buying new cars just because the dealer’s marketing campaign uses slogans like “Canadian Pricing” while giving you a 3% discount on price is just stupid.

Boo on you Canada, Boo on you.

According to a new Bloomberg survey, the world wide CreditCrunch™ appears to be slowly fading away.

You might be wondering what the heck is this CreditCrunch? There has been a lot written on the subject, but not too much explained at a basic level. So here goes…..

The current issues with credit is that it has become more expensive. What does that mean? Well, essentially it means that the funding of lower credit investments have become more expensive. Why? Because people were afraid of risk and wanted only the safest investments. Treasury Bills (T-Bills).  Read the rest of this entry »

Ed Clark, CEO at Toronto Dominion Bank spoke at conference in New York today where he stated that the bank is assuming “dramatically lower” commodity prices in the long run.

If the world financial system is “over-inflating” prices as he put it, then we’re in a bubble. As bubbles don’t last forever, TD Bank is wise to begin planning for lower prices in order to protect itself from future losses.

His remarks are in stark contrast to the bullish predictions by market analysts who see prices going nowhere but up. If the head of a major international bank is weary of current prices, then maybe it’s time for you to review your portfolios…. Or maybe the analysts are right….What do you think? 

This will be a slow week on the economic front, as the only economic data out of Canada today is the release of data on the price of new homes in March. Prices rose 0.2% compared to a month earlier, matching economists’ expectations.

Year over year, new home prices are up 6.1%, a healthy number, although the market is appearing to slow down a bit as the increase this year is slightly lower than last year’s.

Overall this is good news. Continued strong sales in new homes will encourage developers to begin new projects, employing laborers and strengthening the economy. Eventually we’ll meet a point where we’d expect to see a decrease in sale prices as inventories of new homes pass the number of people looking to purchase them. This is normal in a market economy and there is no evidence to suggest the type of collapse that happened south of the border.

When I first got interested in markets I thought technical analysis was a great tool. It was easy to learn, made logical sense and most importantly, appeared to work.

I was fooled by this cunning, seductive mistress. Technical analysis is the fools gold of finance. It is an illusion that is as real as Michael Jackson’s face. But to quote Levar Burton’s Reading Rainbow: “You don’t have to take my word for it”. Read the rest of this entry »

Forget techincal or fundamental analysis. Forget digging through earnings reports, crunching numbers on “trends”, or shooting darts at a list. The easiest way to make money in the market is insider trading. Unless of course, you get caught.

This probe is being carried out jointly by both the Securities and Exchange Commission in the USA and the Ontario Securities Commission in Canada. They allege that a US based law firm that advised on 11 merger transactions over the past two years had a connection to a Toronto business consultant who profited $1.1 million through purchasing shares in the target companies before the mergers were made public.

Insider trading probably happens a lot more than the regulators want us to believe. It’s just so easy. There are usually dozens if not hundreds of people who have access to information that can materially affect how a stock performs. All it takes is a quick phone call to a broker or accomplice and bingo-bango, profit!

OK, I know I made it sounds a lot simpler than it truly is. Having worked in the industry I know what compliance departments focus on and how red flags can appear on your account. I’m not about to start disclosing that for obvious reasons. What I will say is that for all the accounts that are caught, there’s a good chance many get through undetected. Those are the people who are smart enough to fool the system and keep their mouth shut.

A couple of quickies on Bell Canada Enterprises this morning:

-BCE Reported “steady” earrings for the first quarter. Net profit came in at 258M compared to 499M a year earlier. Adjusted EPS (earnings per share) at $0.57 actually topped Thomson’s analyst poll of $0.54. Translation: We took no risks and didn’t mess up.

1. -Investment Bank Genuity Capital is predicting the BCE takeover is will close. No surprises there as this has been the market’s view since the courts gave the bond holders the big heave ho. [via Seeking Alpha, CBC]

Not too many people pay attention to contrarians. They often remind me of the kids in school who ate paste. Sitting in a corner by themselves, ostrasized by their peers. Loners. What you forget is that these kids are often the ones who grow up to do great things. Their minds are complex and cavernous, sparkling with nuggets of information that every investor should pay attention to.

Contrarians are not the ones shouting from atop desks, playing silly sounds and acting like crazed lunatics when discussing the stock of the day. In fact, one could argue that a contrarian is the exact opposite of Jim Cramer. Read the rest of this entry »