With all the recent negative press on the economy, I’ll forgive you for not noticing that the Dow Industrial Average had a really good month in April. Super Really Good. 4.6% returns good.

May is not doing too shabby either. Two days into the month and the Dow is up 1.4%. Aren’t we supposed to be in the middle of a Bear Market with a looming recession? What gives??!?!

What gives is that prior to April, the market went down too much, too quickly, thereby attracting buyers. From October 1st to March 31st, the Dow tumbled almost 13%. That’s quite a haircut for a 6 month period. Based on where we are today, the market still needs another 8.3% in gains just to break even with October’s numbers.

So here’s the big question: Is this just a blip correction, or do we call out the bulls and shout recovery?

 Lets take a look at what we know based on data from the last few weeks:

- The US Federal Reserve has been slashing rates. This usually leads to a boost to stocks, as companies will be able to borrow for less, and consumer get access to cheaper money (so that they can spend it).

- Job numbers for the month of April weren’t as bad as expected. The results were a quarter of the street consensus.

- GDP also topped analysts expectations in April.

- Oil & Food prices continued to rise rapidly, with no real end in sight.

So overall there’s been more positive than negative economic news this past month. However, and this is a BIG however, the continued rise in oil and food prices can lead to high inflation, which can undo a lot of the positives from the past month.

The good news is that things aren’t so bad after all, but we’re not out of the woods yet.